So the Buccaneers will open the season at the New Orleans Conspiracy Theory.
Personally, I was hoping for a road game against the Las Vegas Paranoid, but I suppose this works, too.
Yes, it’s that time of the year to devour the NFL schedule in one sitting and then spit it back in Lord Goodell’s face. That’s the way it goes in Tampa Bay, where we lead the league in both intrigue and interceptions.
Not that it’s completely unjustified. The NFL and commissioner Roger Goodell gave the Bucs a schedule last season that was so nauseous, league officials were apologizing before coach Bruce Arians could even start complaining.
And now they’ve followed that up with this whopper:
A 2020 season opener on the road against the Saints.
The league had 16 possibilities to choose from, and it managed to pick the most important and difficult game on the entire schedule for Tom Brady to make his debut after 20 years with another team.
Connive, much?
It’s almost as if the NFL was purposefully tweaking the message-board hysteria surrounding the supposed Goodell-Brady animosity that dates back to Deflategate. There is not another matchup in Week 1 that looks like this. Not with two division rivals that are both creating Super Bowl buzz.
So, yeah, it’s a little annoying if you’re a Bucs fan.
But here’s the thing:
It shouldn’t matter.
Even if he wanted to — and there is zero suspicion that he did — Goodell could not sabotage a schedule with opponents and sites as favorable as this. And we’ve known that since last season ended. Because the matchups were already baked into the NFL formula, the schedule was always going to be attractive no matter where the dates landed on the calendar.
To begin with, the Bucs are trending right now in the league’s top-five for Super Bowl favorites. Just to be clear, the odds are not considered predictions but rather a reflection of how people are betting.
And based on sportsbooks at Caesars Palace and Bovada, the Bucs will play only four of the NFL’s top dozen teams this season. On the other hand, they have seven games against the league’s bottom-dwellers.
And that may not even be the best part. Most of Tampa Bay’s road games are against their weakest opponents.
Other than the opener against the Saints, the Bucs do not have a single game away from Raymond James Stadium against a team with a winning record from 2019. That sets up the possibility of Tampa Bay being a favorite in as many as six or seven road games. They should also be the favorite in a half-dozen home games.
Add that up, and you have a team capable of challenging the franchise record of 12 regular-season victories.
So how accurate are these odds? Probably better than average, but far from perfect. Last season, for instance, half the league’s playoff teams were accurately forecast in preseason odds. But the betting lines thought the Chargers were going to be far better than they were, and they completely missed Baltimore’s emergence.
In other words, the Bucs still have to go out and prove they are not the 2020 version of the Cleveland Browns, who rode into the season on a parade of hosannas and promptly face planted.
Will the placement of games on the schedule hurt or help?
Honestly, I’d say the schedule is less-than-ideal but not nearly as bad as last year’s never-ending road trip. Tampa Bay opens with five road games in eight weeks and catches the Saints again in November following a Monday night game on the road. Neither of those sound appetizing.
On the plus side, the Bucs may not play a game in weather colder than 60 degrees, because their only two road games in December are in domes.
And then there’s the prime-time factor. The Bucs are scheduled to play two Monday night games, two Sunday night games and one Thursday night game. That’s more prime-time games than they’ve had in the last three seasons combined. It’s also the first time in franchise history that they could play five prime-time games in one season.
The Bucs haven’t had a lot of success in prime time lately — they are 2-7 since 2014 — but they also haven’t had a ton of success on Sunday afternoons, either.
That’s why it’s probably best to accept the schedule for what it is. Bye weeks and road trips and turnarounds all play a factor during a season, but not nearly as much as the 22 starters on the depth chart. And this is the best-looking Bucs team of the last decade.
But, just to be safe, make sure Goodell stays 6 feet away from Brady.
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May 08, 2020 at 04:47AM
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Can somebody get this Bucs schedule dusted for Goodell's fingerprints? - Tampa Bay Times
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