Let's indulge the idea of Dylan Cease, Cy Young finalist - Sox Machine

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It was only last year that we saw Dylan Cease move his fastball around all the great parts of the plate, and get his breaking balls to dart in the zone and dive below it. Granted, those appearances were in separate abbreviated preseason outings months apart, but they were the product of concentrated efforts to solve his biggest problems with hitting the mitt.

Alas, he regressed when the regular season rolled around. The unwanted cut on his fastball returned home to ride out the pandemic with him, and the control issues beneath everything prevented him from being able to pitch backward.

So there’s a little bit of fool-me-twice apprehension when reading the second round of spring enthusiasm for Cease, even if he has a new pitching coach tasked with (core velocity) belting some sense into him. Yasmani Grandal made for some shareable tweets with an exciting first impression of Cease’s 2021 form …

“I feel like if we get him to where we see him going, this guy could be a Cy Young finalist,” Grandal said Thursday. “He could possibly be a Cy Young winner. He’s got the tools to do it, there’s no doubt on that.”

… except when Grandal mentioned the steps it’d take to get there …

“Now it just comes down to the process and making sure he gets to do and sees the vision that we have for him, and the future is only going to dictate whether we can get him to be what we want him to be or not.”

… it sorta echoed what he’d said about Cease at SoxFest last year.

“A lot of times, we tend to overthink everything,” said Grandal. “To a young guy, I’ve been there. I thought too much about my swing, how I catch, and how I throw. I keep coming back to this because I had to learn this lesson, but everything is a process. When it comes to Cease, we will get him to understand the natural flow and his natural ability to take over. After that, he’ll be a done deal and be ready to go.”

* * * * * * * * *

But it wouldn’t be spring if we didn’t entertain a little bit of hype, especially since the offseason decisions and his spot on the team are already firmly in place. He’s opening the team as the No. 4 starter regardless of his initial form, with hopes that he’ll be able to challenge Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel or Lance Lynn for a postseason start after diminishing returns in 2020 relegated him to relief work during the Wild Card series. If he still can’t get it together? Well, you cross your fingers that Michael Kopech can pass him on the depth chart, after which Cease, Reynaldo López and any other promising contributors can slug it out for the fifth spot.

The acquisition of Lynn means that Cease only has to be decent to serve his purpose on the team. There’s no danger in dreaming beyond that.

Grandal’s quotes go even further. Hell, when you look at Cease’s PECOTA projections by percentile, Grandal’s vision of a Cy Young finalist are literally off the charts.

Below is a summary of Cease’s PECOTA percentiles. I’ve highlighted the median projection, with his career to date below it, since they conveniently cover a similar workload:

%	IP	H	HR	BB%	K%	ERA	FIP
99	123⅔	93	15	9.1	31.0	2.76	3.48
95	123⅔	98	16	10.1	28.1	3.25	3.90
90	123⅔	101	16	10.5	26.8	3.54	4.12
80	123⅔	105	17	11.1	25.0	3.91	4.41
70	123⅔	108	17	11.5	24.0	4.19	4.62
60	123⅔	111	18	11.9	23.0	4.45	4.81
50	123⅔	114	18	12.4	22.2	4.70	4.98
40	123⅔	117	19	12.8	21.2	4.97	5.17
30	123⅔	120	19	13.1	20.4	5.26	5.37
20	123⅔	124	20	13.8	19.4	5.63	5.61
10	123⅔	129	21	14.5	18.1	6.19	5.96
5	123⅔	135	21	15.1	17.1	6.68	6.27
1	123⅔	146	23	16.3	15.2	7.73	6.89
CTD	131⅓	128	27	11.9	21.5	5.00	5.71

The median projection isn’t scintillating, but it actually reflects modest improvement in his run prevention abilities. It’s a pessimistic forecast that’s still within range of the other systems. Turn the optimism dial up one notch, and PECOTA arrives to ZiPS’ projection for Cease in terms of run prevention (4.48 ERA), with a second notch covering the peripherals (4.60 FIP, 11.3% BB, 22.8% K).

Now, to get where Cease is a Cy Young finalist, PECOTA says you basically have to twist that dial until the spindle snaps. Yet it’s not outside the realm of possibility when you look at the walks. Even Cease’s perfect-world projections can’t envision him lowering his walk rate to league average, which was 8.3 percent for starters last year.

And for good reason — Cease’s walk rate has hovered above 10 percent for the entirety of his professional career, save his 9.7 percent walk rate in Winston-Salem back in 2018. He just may never be a typical strike-thrower, and that’s fine since it’s not his main problem. His strikeout rate is what holds him back. He had just a 3.9 percent gap between his K and BB rates last year, which is why PECOTA’s worst scenarios project him beyond Broken Jason Bere territory.

Basically, the bad news about Cease is the good news. He’s been so off-kilter over the course of his first 26 starts that even one attainable development can right the ship, and his stuff is so powerful that it can take a couple other attainable developments and multiply the effects. My tendency toward pragmatism says to take it step by step, but if you don’t mind getting carried away, I suppose now is the ideal time for it.

(Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

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Let's indulge the idea of Dylan Cease, Cy Young finalist - Sox Machine
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