What do you give the team that has everything? The Utah Jazz are hardly perfect. There's no such thing in the NBA. But they're the perfect version of the team that they are trying to be. Their pick-and-roll-based attack generates more 3-point attempts than any other offense in the NBA, and the Jazz make those shots at the third-highest clip in basketball. Their defense is based on limiting 3-point attempts by staying at home on shooters and relying on their elite rim protection to force them into mid-range jumpers. They already have the NBA's best rim protector.
That isn't to say that the Jazz are entirely without flaws. It's that those flaws are endemic and uncorrectable at the trade deadline. One could argue, for instance, that aggressive drop-coverage defenses don't work in the playoffs. Too bad. The Jazz can't change their entire identity over the course of a few weeks. They can't find the sort of superstar-level talent they might be lacking either. Lacking LeBron James is simply not a correctable issue. The Jazz are going to win or lose in the playoffs based on factors that have already been determined. They are who they are.
That makes the March 25 deadline a somewhat dull affair for Utah. The Jazz will gladly take upgrades that present themselves, but there isn't much on the market worth upsetting the delicate balance of this roster over. So how might they attempt to thread the needle between improvement and stability? Here's everything you need to know about Utah's position heading toward the deadline.
Needs
- A big defensive forward. Royce O'Neale deserves All-Defense consideration this season, but he's 6-4 and winning the Western Conference is going to mean containing 6-7 Kawhi Leonard and 6-8 LeBron James. No, O'Neale doesn't play defense with the top of his head, but that height gap is meaningful for different reasons in both matchups. Utah's defense intentionally gives up the sort of mid-range jumpers Leonard loves, so contesting him will already be an adjustment. Allowing James unencumbered vision of the whole floor is practically an invitation to his passing exhibition. Bojan Bogdanovic will get minutes against both, but he's hardly a deterrent. The Jazz could use a bigger defender capable of bothering the best forwards in the West, and potentially even Kevin Durant in a Finals matchup.
- A post-defense specialist. This might be a statistical blip, but it's worth noting that the Jazz allow the most points per possession on post-ups in the NBA (1.092). It's not even close, as no other defense allows even 1.07, and that deficiency has been exploited by Joel Embiid (40 points in his recent matchup with the Jazz) and Nikola Jokic (an average of 41 against Utah this season). Rudy Gobert has historically been decent in the post, but hardly as dominant as he is elsewhere on defense. Derrick Favors is getting killed. Utah lost to Jokic last postseason. Anthony Davis is waiting this time. It wouldn't kill the Jazz to target a low-post specialist just as a different look off the bench for matchups like that.
- Transition offense. Finding a complaint against Utah's offense is hardly worth the effort. If there's any weakness there whatsoever, it's that the Jazz are merely average in transition offense. They rank 18th in fast-break points per game and 16th in points per possession in transition. If they can find a way to jumpstart their running game without compromising anything else they do, it certainly wouldn't hurt.
Assets
- Untouchables: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley
- Probably staying: Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O'Neale
- For the right price: Derrick Favors, Georges Niang, Miye Oni, Udoka Azubuike
- Let's make a deal: Juwan Morgan, Elijah Hughes
- Tradable first-round picks: 2026 or 2027 (own)
- Tradable first-round swap rights: 2025, 2026, 2027
- Tradable second-round picks: 2021 (Golden State), 2025-2026 (own)
Cap notes
- The Jazz are currently less than $2 million above the luxury tax line and have an important decision to make. With new deals for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert about to kick in, the Jazz are almost certain to pay the tax next season. They already have roughly $130 million committed to only 11 players, not including Mike Conley, who will be a free agent and command a hefty salary. Depending on what they pay Conley next offseason and Joe Ingles in 2022, there is a good chance they're paying the tax for multiple seasons after that. The repeater tax triggers when a team has paid the tax in three out of the prior four seasons, not including the most recent season. It would behoove the small-market Jazz to delay that clock as long as possible, but given the age of their supporting players, they may never have a better chance at a championship than they do now. So Utah has a decision to make: Try to duck below the tax line and delay that clock for the sake of prolonged flexibility and contention, or go all-in to try to win the title this season.
- By virtue of being above the luxury tax line, the Jazz can absorb only 125 percent of the salary they send out plus $100,000 in any trade, regardless of the size of the contracts they bring back in.
- By using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (on Derrick Favors), the Jazz hard-capped themselves at the apron ($138.928 million). They cannot exceed that amount for any reason. They currently have around $4.6 million in room beneath that line with which to operate.
- The Jazz have not yet spent their bi-annual exception, which starts at roughly $3.6 million but has already begun to prorate by the day. This can be used only to sign free agents.
- The Jazz also have two trade exceptions, one worth roughly $5 million (from the Ed Davis deal) and another worth roughly $3.5 million (from the Tony Bradley deal). These can be used to absorb salaries in trades.
Expiring contracts
- Mike Conley and Georges Niang are unrestricted free agents with full Bird rights. The Jazz can pay either player anything up to the max in order to retain them.
- Juwan Morgan is a restricted free agent with Early Bird rights. That subjects him to the Gilbert Arenas provision, which is explained in more depth here. However, it is unlikely to come up, and if Morgan re-signs with the Jazz, it will likely be for something close to the minimum.
Possible trade targets
Low-end -- Wayne Ellington: This would be about supplementation rather than improvement. If the Jazz just want to add another player that fits into their offense, Ellington fits the bill and is entirely attainable given his minimum salary and advanced age (33) on a rebuilding team. You can never have enough shooting, but the added benefit of pursuing Ellington would be keeping him away from the Lakers, who sorely need another cheap shooter.
Medium-end -- Maurice Harkless: The Heat have hardly used Harkless, who in the past has been a starting-caliber defensive forward. It might be worth checking in with Miami and seeing if it would be interested in dumping Harkless' money into the Davis trade exception. The Heat are not currently a tax team, so they aren't really incentivized to do so, but their priorities could change with a deadline deal of their own.
High-end -- P.J. Tucker: Yes, Tucker has not been given "high-end" status in other previews, but he would qualify as such for Utah, specifically because they would have to trade one of their core eight players in order to match his salary. That would likely be Favors, a player they just brought back this offseason. Tucker is the more valuable postseason player, but making that swap deprives the Jazz of the flexibility to play big in certain postseason matchups. Still, with Utah's preexisting shooting, a true small-ball alignment would be absolutely lethal offensively and would offer more switchability against the best shooting teams in the playoffs.
Possible buyout targets
Guard -- Quinn Cook: The sort of up-tempo fast-break facilitator they probably wouldn't mind adding won't be on the market unless Rajon Rondo gets a surprising buyout. Instead, keep an eye on another shooter with playoff experience. Cook recently signed a 10-day deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but if he makes it back onto the market after that, he'd be worth a look for the Jazz.
Forward -- Trevor Ariza: This could be a surprisingly strong buyout class for bigger 3-and-D forwards. Otto Porter Jr. could easily become available as well, but Ariza is likelier to be healthy when it counts, and the Jazz could outbid some of their competitors with that bi-annual exception. The added value here, as with Ellington, would be keeping him away from those very competitors who could sorely use him.
Center -- Hassan Whiteside: He could probably find a more stable role and his shortcomings are well-documented, but if the Jazz want a pure post defender, they'd be hard-pressed to do better than Whiteside on the buyout market. Besides, if any defense can accommodate his block-hunting, it's an aggressive drop scheme like Utah's.
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March 12, 2021 at 05:27AM
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