Can the Jacksonville Jaguars steal a win against the Atlanta Falcons at home this weekend and improve to 3-8?
Or will the Jaguars instead continue to struggle, losing their third game in a row and falling to 2-9 during a month-long skid?
To find the answer, the Jaguar Report staff debates our guesses on Sunday's score, as well as which mismatches the Jaguars are and are not equ
1) Do the Jaguars have an answer on defense for Kyle Pitts?
John Shipley: They do not. Few defenses have struggled against tight ends this year as much as the Jaguars' have, in part due to the Jaguars' coverage scheme and in part due to Damien Wilson, Andrew Wingard, and Rayshawn Jenkins not making many plays in the middle of the field. The Jaguars have had issues with tight ends all year and I just don't think that changes as they play a tight end who is already one of the best in the NFL despite being a rookie.
Gus Logue: Myles Jack is Jacksonville’s only hope. He hasn’t been assigned shadow coverage in the past, but Jack is the only Jaguar who is at least an average pass defender with Shaquill Griffin ruled out. I’m interested to see how often Jack lines up across from Pitts, because the rookie tight end is likely to toast any other defender one-on-one.
Demetrius Harvey: Simply put, no, not really. Pitts is the player that most teams want on their offense because he presents an incredible miss-match issue for opposing defenses. The Jaguars don't really have that one player you'd point to that can cover him one-on-one, though linebacker Myles Jack told some of us on Tuesday that he was excited and ready for the challenge of covering the No. 4 overall pick this weekend. Nevertheless, the answer will be tough, and aside from bracketing him, I'm not sure there's enough there to slow him down.
Michael Phillips: No. Kyle Pitts presents a mismatch the Jaguars simply do not have an answer for. His size and strength are one thing, but his catch radius is something else. Now, the Falcons have struggled all season in getting him heavily involved and his production has been up and down. If the Jaguars pass rush can get to Matt Ryan and force some issues then the connection to Pitts may be thrown off and unable to get into a rhythm.
2) Can the rest of the offense step up for Trevor Lawrence this week after a bad last month?
John Shipley: I don't think so. The offense has had enough creativity in terms of their offensive design to put the offense in good situations, but injuries and an already low level of talent have completely depleted the offense. The Jaguars are a slow offense that struggles to create big plays, and without James Robinson they don't have the ability to churn out first downs and stay on the field. The offense is in bad shape and I don't think it improves over the next week, let alone over the next seven games.
Gus Logue: The receiver room has been a disaster throughout the season and I don’t expect that to change this week, but I think the Jaguars run game has an opportunity to get back on track against an average Atlanta run defense. James Robinson had a full practice on Friday for the first time in the past month. I think he’ll be able to do enough on the ground to push Jacksonville past it’s post-bye 10.8 points per game.
Demetrius Harvey: I mean, sure, they can step up, especially after last week, it's not tough to get better than last week, running just over 40 plays on the day. Truth be told, the Jaguars' offensive issues aren't going to improve dramatically this year, they are what they are due to the talent they have.
Michael Phillips: Evidence does not suggest so. Lawrence has been left on an island, trying to make plays with little to no help from the guys around him. James Robinson is still not close to 100% which does not bode well for the offense whatsoever. And without a ground game this offense will most likely be forced to push the ball downfield and the guys on the outside have shown no ability to make the plays needed to move the ball consistently.
3) Who do the Jaguars need to have a big day to secure a victory?
John Shipley: Tyson Campbell. The Jaguars' secondary is already paper-thin when it is at top strength. With Shaquill Griffin out due to a concussion, the Jaguars' back end of the defense is in dire shape. The Falcons don't have any burners at receiver without Calvin Ridley on the field, but Kyle Pitts lines up out wide enough to make Campbell a key player on Sunday.
Gus Logue: Roy Robertson-Harris has been mostly an afterthought this season after signing Jacksonville’s third-largest free agent contract this past offseason. However, he quietly ranks second behind Josh Allen in quarterback pressures since the bye, and he could be in line for a strong performance against Atlanta — rookie left guard Jalen Mayfield is one of the worst pass protectors in the league. Robertson-Harris and the rest of Jacksonville’s front will have to force constant pressure to aid the Griffin-less secondary.
Demetrius Harvey: Trevor Lawrence. Honestly, Jaguars fans, listen here, for the remainder of the season, just hope that Lawrence can muster up a good game, that's legitimately all that matters this season.
Michael Phillips: Rudy Ford and Josh Allen. With Shaq Griffin out with a concussion the secondary is behind the eight ball. I think Ford can be a saving grace with Griffin out. I don’t think he will line up outside, but if he can hold down the slot like he has shown he can do then it allows the rest of the secondary to handle their assignments. And Allen is big for obvious reasons. If he can continue his fantastic season and provide pressure consistently on Ryan it will be a massive help to the down secondary.
4) Who has a bigger game: Cordarrelle Patterson or Laviska Shenault?
John Shipley: I am going against the grain here and going with Laviska Shenault. Cordarrelle Patterson has been one of the most versatile and valuable skill pieces in the entire NFL this season, but he is entering the game at less than 100% due to his recent injuries, and I have a feeling the Jaguars will put a big focus on stopping him after being embarrassed by Deebo Samuel a week ago. Shenault will likely get funneled touches now that Jamal Agnew is on IR and James Robinson is still injured.
Gus Logue: Cordarrelle Patterson, simply because he’s earned over twice as many touches as Laviska Shenault and has seven total touchdowns to Shenault’s zero. I expect the more productive player thus far to continue the trend, but with that said I do think this is an opportunity for a breakout game from Shenault. With Jamal Agnew on injured reserve, Shenault may move back inside to the slot with Laquon Treadwell taking the perimeter receiver position. Shenault could benefit big-time from more slot snaps and backfield opportunities, which Urban Meyer mentioned this week as a possible creative spark for the offense.
Demetrius Harvey: This one is curious. On the surface you'd say Patterson, he's had a better season, and is more polished in his role. But, he's still coming off of an injury and there isn't proof yet that he's 100%. Shenault on the other hand has struggled of late, and is going to need to step into yet another new role on offense.
Michael Phillips: Patterson. Even not at 100% I simply trust his abilities and the Falcons staff to utilize his skills far more than I do Jacksonville to utilize Shenault. Patterson has been incredible for Atlanta and outside of an injury I don’t expect him to be slowed down.
5) Score prediction?
John Shipley: 20-14, Falcons. Neither team is exactly setting things on fire, but the Falcons have Kyle Pitts and A.J. Terrell, which I think is enough to get them over the hump against a struggling Jaguars team.
Gus Logue: Falcons 29, Jaguars 20. I expect a productive day for the Falcons offense, as Atlanta has a rest advantage, Jacksonville will be without Shaquill Griffin, and Kyle Pitts should easily take advantage of Jacksonville's inability to cover the middle of the field. And while I think the Jaguars run game will have a bounce back game, I don’t think it’ll be enough to hang with Matt Ryan and co. in the end.
Demetrius Harvey: The Falcons are incredibly bad. Going into the season, this was the game most pointed to as a guaranteed win for Jacksonville. This isn't the case now, but they are still not a great franchise at the moment. I'd go ahead and still say the Jaguars will lose, but it'll be close. Hopefully better than this, but around 14-10.
Michael Phillips: 27-20 Atlanta. Both teams have struggled this season mightily, but I believe the Falcons have more playmakers and that will ultimately be the deciding factor.
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