Predicting the winners for the troubled, host-less, deeply mediocre 2019 Oscars - Washington Examiner

There’s a solid chance the 2019 Oscars will be the worst ever.

That may sound hyperbolic, but everything leading up to the Feb. 24 telecast points to a lame ceremony not helped by what are sure to be a few winners that had no business being nominated in the first place. It might be worse than when James Franco and Anne Hathaway hosted the 2011 Oscars. Seriously.

The nominations were almost universally awful, which wasn’t a great start. Then, the Oscars announced the ceremony would be going host-less this year because, presumably, nobody wanted that god-forsaken job. Finally, in a baffling move that seemed to please nobody, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided not to televise four categories this year, including best cinematography -- a decision they quickly and wisely reversed.

Despite all signs pointing toward a terrible Oscars, awards will still be doled out, and cinematic history will be etched in stone. So, with a heavy sigh lamenting what an unmitigated disaster the Academy Awards probably will be, let’s go through the major awards and decide who’s most deserving of taking home a golden statue.

Best Animated Film

Winner: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Potential Spoiler: “Isle of Dogs”

This was actually a solid year for animated films, with this year’s category featuring entries from Disney, Pixar, Sony, Wes Anderson, and even Japan. This might be the rare year where Disney and Pixar lose to another studio. No offense to “Incredibles 2” or “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” but neither were as heartwarming or visually dazzling as “Into the Spider-Verse.”

There is, however, a chance the Academy latches onto “Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson’s aggressively Wes Anderson stop-motion film. It doesn’t deserve to win, but it wouldn’t be shocking if the Academy eschews rewarding a superhero film for something a bit more attuned to the voting body’s usual sensibilities.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner: “Green Book”

Potential Spoiler: “First Reformed”

This sucks, but “Green Book” has been an awards-season darling. This just seems like the type of racially safe story the Academy would want to award. It shouldn’t even be nominated, but here we are. Look for Paul Schrader’s thought-provoking “First Reformed” screenplay to possibly save us from the hell of recognizing “Green Book” in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner: “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Potential Spoiler: “A Star Is Born”

It’s criminal that “If Beale Street Could Talk” isn’t up for Best Picture, but its screenplay was so exquisitely crafted by Barry Jenkins that the Academy should give it its proper due here. If not, maybe “A Star Is Born” can sneak a victory in this category. It is by far the most quotable of the nominees. Cue the “ I just wanted to get another look at ya” meme.

Best Director

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”

Potential Spoiler: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"

It was a legitimate surprise when the Academy chose not to nominate Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut with “A Star Is Born.” Without him to worry about, there’s almost no chance Cuaron loses this given how undeniably beautiful “Roma” is. Maybe the Academy spots Lee a win for not even giving him a chance for so long? Probably not, but who knows.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Potential Spoiler: Either Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

This category is a little more stacked than it appears on its surface. That said, this is King’s award to lose. She had a few spectacular scenes in “Beale Street” as a mother doing her best to help her daughter’s fiance out of an awful situation. She’s not a heavy favorite, but she has the inside lane in this race.

She would have more competition if Stone and Weisz weren’t splitting the vote for their equally impressive performances in “The Favourite.” Either that, or they’re canceling themselves out altogether because of their proximity to each other in this category. That would be a shame, but it’s how the game is played.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Potential Spoiler: Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

As annoying as the racial politics in “Green Book” were, Ali’s performance was pitch-perfect and worthy of an Oscar. This is probably the best bet of any acting category. That said, maybe the Academy will throw a curveball and show Elliott some love for backing out of a driveway while crying like a pro in “A Star Is Born.”

Best Actress

Winner: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Potential Spoiler: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Sorry, little monsters. Lady Gaga isn’t winning this award. Get your feelings out now.

This is probably going to Close for "The Wife," a movie very few people saw and even fewer had particularly strong opinions about. Consider this a career-achievement award, like when Jeff Bridges won in 2010 for "Crazy Heart." Unless the Academy bows down to its queen and awards Colman for her royal role in “The Favourite,” Close has this one in the bag.

Best Actor

Winner: Christian Bale, “Vice”

Potential Spoiler: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

The Academy really, really likes rewarding actors who make physical transformations for parts, and no one did more work in that arena than Bale embodying former Vice President Dick freakin’ Cheney in “Vice.” His performance is remarkable, as you never for a second think of him as anyone but the former vice president. It’s a great example of committing to your art.

Unfortunately, we should all mentally prepare ourselves for the real possibility that Malek will win this award for putting on some fake teeth in an actively bad movie. The fact he has cleaned up throughout awards season is baffling given Bale’s presence and even Bradley Cooper’s “A Star Is Born” performance. And yet, that might be the world we live in come Feb. 24.

Best Picture

Winner: “Roma”

Potential Spoiler: “Green Book”

For the record, there are only three movies worthy of winning Best Picture this year: “Black Panther,” “Roma,” and “The Favourite.” The fact “Green Book” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” were nominated is a joke, and the other three are sloppy films with great elements.

To that end, Cuaron’s magnum opus is the film most likely to take home the night’s biggest award. Of course, maybe the Academy comes down with a bad case of “Crash” syndrome again and can’t help but giving Best Picture to “Green Book,” a competent but problematic film. Worst-case scenario, “Bohemian Rhapsody” somehow wins.

Academy: Whatever you do, please, please don’t allow that to happen.

Joshua Axelrod (@jaxel222) was previously a web producer and pop politics writer for the Washington Examiner. He is an entertainment contributor to FanSided and has a master's degree in Media and Strategic Communications from George Washington University.

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/predicting-the-winners-for-the-troubled-host-less-deeply-mediocre-2019-oscars

2019-02-23 05:00:00Z

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