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How Cam Newton and the Patriots offense can overwhelm Miami - Boston Herald

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There will be no fans, no Tom Brady, no banner-raising before the game.

There will, however, be football.

The Pats’ season opener against the Dolphins is one of their more anticipated in recent memory, excitement entirely driven by the unknown.

How will Cam Newton play? Can the Patriots exact revenge for last year’s Week 17 loss? Who will fill their holes on defense?

None of those answers will be available until the ball is kicked off. Until then, for the Pats and their fans, it’s all about planning for the unknown.

So here are three keys for Newton and the Patriots offense to overwhelm Miami in Sunday’s game.

1. Unleash Newton on designed runs

No quarterback in NFL history has inflicted more damage on designed runs than Cam Newton.

Now that he’s healthy, it’s time to let Cam be Cam again.

The Patriots have installed a handful of new read run concepts in their playbook to maximize Newton’s rare rushing ability. On these plays, when Newton takes the snap, hesitates with a handoff and stares down a deliberately unblocked defender, he effectively “blocks” that defender by predicating his next move on what the defender does.

If the defender pursues the running back, Newton pulls the ball out and runs into open space. If the defender hesitates, he completes the handoff and allows the back to run behind a double-team. The Pats can further displace defenses by putting running backs in motion as Newton initiates the handoff. Without the benefit of a preseason to prepare against these looks, it’s fair to say they will put Miami in a bind.

Additionally through these read concepts, the Pats can overcome loaded boxes. Last season with Tom Brady, a non-running threat, the Patriots averaged a paltry 2.5 yards per carry against 7-man boxes, per Sharp Football Stats. In Carolina, Newton and Co. averaged better than six versus those same loaded boxes, thanks to these schemes.

This is how the Pats can punish the Dolphins, especially by rushing up the middle, where Miami ranked as a bottom-10 defense last year and returns the same two starters at defensive tackle.

2. Target Roberts in coverage

In his final year as a Patriot, Elandon Roberts was a terrific teammate.

He was elected a captain for the first time. He kept quiet all season as his playing time dwindled to 20% of the team’s defensive snaps. He even served as an emergency fullback.

Now that he’s gone, the Pats can stop thanking him and start picking on him.

Over his career, quarterbacks have enjoyed a 121.2 QB rating when targeting Roberts in coverage. He boasts above-average straight-line speed, but struggles with shiftier backs. The Patriots can count on Roberts being deployed in base defensive personnel— meaning seven combined linemen and linebackers — which the Dolphins used at one of the highest rates in the NFL last year.

Furthermore, they can bank on Miami beefing up specifically to stop a Newton-led running game. The more Roberts plays, the more chances the Pats will have Roberts 1-on-1 against James White, Rex Burkhead or perhaps a rookie tight end in Devin Asiasi or Dalton Keene.

Bottom line: Whenever and wherever Roberts is in coverage, throw his way.

3. Screens, screens, screens

Despite their offensive woes, the Patriots were quietly one of the NFL’s best screen teams last year.

If they can keep that up for one more game, their success should speak plenty loudly.

Miami ranked as a bottom-10 defense against screens last season by several advanced metrics, another flaw in the staff’s preference to play heavier personnel. The Pats should struggle finding completions out wide against elite cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So why bother?

They can gain yards by running the Dolphins through a series of misdirections and flipping the ball to White and letting him run. Or Burkhead or maybe even a receiver like Julian Edelman. Without the benefit of practicing form tackling through an entire preseason, most defenses figure to struggle in open space to start the season.

See if Miami is up to the tackling task.

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