The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't exactly have the start to the 2021 season they wanted, but they have a chance to reverse course at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
How does the Jaguar Report staff think the Jaguars' first home game of the season unfolds? Who wins, and why? We break it all down below in the Week 4 roundtable.
1) Joe Burrow destroys Cover 0 coverage, which the Jaguars deploy a good bit. Can they slow him down?
John Shipley: I think the Jaguars will have a tough time if they try to blitz Joe Burrow, but nothing suggests to me that they will switch up the game plan. The Jaguars are high in blitz and pressure rate but have generated only four sacks and one turnover through three games, so it isn't like the blitzes are either hitting home or frocing quarterbacks into mistakes. Every quarterback who has played the Jaguars to this point has had massive success, and there is nothing about Joe Burrow or his skill set that suggests to me he will be much different
Gus Logue: This figures to be the game where Jackonville's sack total (4, currently 31st in the league) catches up to its pressure rate (30%, 4th), as Cincinnati has allowed a middling pressure rate (24.7%, 15th) but a lot of sacks (10, 3rd).
Joe Burrow still isn't 100% after his November 2020 ACL tear and will be the least mobile quarterback that the Jaguars have faced this season. But while he lacks certain physical capabilities, Burrow is already one of the sharpest quarterbacks in the league and is aided by a scheme that's allowed him to throw at the third-fastest rate in the NFL per Next Gen Stats. Unless the Jaguars are able to consistently win (and finish) pass-rushing reps, Burrow shouldn't have too much trouble against a Jacksonville defense that has been susceptible to man-coverage beating concepts and ranks seventh-worst in yards per attempt allowed in Cover 0 this season per Sports Info Solutions.
Kassidy Hill: Before answering this with Jaguars specifics, it’s important to note for those that might not know, Cover 0 requires complimentary defense, perhaps more so than any other coverage. If you’re going to ask your defensive backs to play man-to-man and sticky coverage, than your pass rush has to hit. The DB's can’t be asked to cover for seven or eight seconds. JaMarr Chase will come off of that every time. So if you can get a decent push up front to force a quick throw, then you’ve got a better shot. That being said, it also requires—as noted—a sticky coverage. We see that at times with Shaquill Griffin and Rayshawn Jenkins, but haven’t seen it as much, in my opinion at least, from Andrew Wingard and Tyson Campbell.
Griffin did a relatively outstanding job shutting down the Cardinals DeAndre Hopkins, following him for the entire game. He said it was the first time he shadowed a receiver the entire time, but it’s what’s asked of a CB1. He gave up only three receptions for 21 yards. But I don’t know if they have enough physicality to win those battles unit wide in Cover 0. So, could the Jaguars possibly employ some time of combination coverage? Allowing Griffin and Jenkins to play man-to-man? It’s an idea. They don’t pay me millions of dollars to call the defensive plays for the Jaguars, but I’d be hesitant to leave my backfield open against a team that boast a receiver like Chase and a quarterback with the arm like Joe Burrow.
2) Who wins the most important battle: Ja'Marr Chase or Shaquill Griffin?
John Shipley: Shaquill Griffin has given up a few plays here and there, but he is also just two drops away from having multiple interceptions this season. Ja'Marr Chase is on an absolute tear, but Griffin can hone in on Chase due to Tee Higgins' injury and Griffin is just a few days removed from a stellar outing against a less than 100% DeAndre Hopkins. Griffin should have a slight edge tonight, but Chase will certainly challenge him on his fair share of one-on-ones downfield before the final whistle is blow.
Gus Logue: Ja'Marr Chase is the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year after racking up four scores in his first three professional games, but I'd give the edge to veteran Shaquill Griffin on Thursday- especially after his performance across from an elite (albeit hobbled) receiver last week, as DeAndre Hopkins managed just one catch for six yards on two targets in shadow coverage against Griffin per PFF. This matchup will ultimately come down to who is able to win in one-on-one situations down the field, as over half of Chase's production this season has come from three 30-plus yard touchdowns but Griffin has allowed just one 15-plus yard catch on the year.
Kassidy Hill: If this was the third game of the season, I’d say Chase. But I feel like Sunday did a lot for Griffin both in confidence and experience. The ability to hold down DeAndre Hopkins and severely limit his impact is huge for a corner. Chase is too talented to be shut down an entire game and Griffin still has a tendency to flip his hips late, letting receivers run by at times. But coming off of Sunday, Griffin has to feel better about his own game heading into Cincinnati and confidence is half of playing corner.
3) Does Joe Mixon have a big day against an untested Jaguars' run offense?
John Shipley: Yes. The Jaguars have been solid against the run this year, but the Jaguars have also let far too many important conversions be made against them against the run at the same time. With an offense as committed to running the ball as the Bengals and Joe Mixon, I think the Jaguars are due to give up a few long runs. This is in part because the Jaguars have a slow defense due to their heavy defensive line personnel and slower linebacker on Damien Wilson, while the Jaguars have also had issues with missed tackles throughout the first three weeks. Few running backs force as many missed tackles as Joe Mixon, which is bad news for the Jaguars.
Gus Logue: Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has made it evident that the team's offensive strategy is to establish the run to allow more room over the top for the passing game to rack up explosive plays: Cincinnati easily paces the league in neutral situation run rate (per RBSDM.com) which has resulted in Joe Mixon earning more carries than any player not named Derrick Henry this season.
Taylor uses a high rate of three wide receiver sets to dictate defensive personnel and create light boxes for Mixon, a strategy that should continue to work against Jacksonville. According to SIS, the Jaguars defense stacks boxes at the second-highest rate in the league, but that rank drops to 20th against 11 personnel. The Bengals offensive line has also had a surprisingly strong start to the season, as it ranks ninth in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards and 11th in ESPN's run block win rate despite facing Minnesota, Chicago and Pittsburgh. With light boxes and a solid offensive line in front of him, Mixon is set up well to continue feasting against Jacksonville's front.
Kassidy Hill: I don’t know what to think about this Jaguars run defense. They give up 85 yards and a touchdown to Mark Ingram alone in week one, then hold the Broncos and Cardinals—both teams in the Top 10 in the league in rushing—to less than 100 yards total. Not only that, they held the Broncos to 0.8 yards less per rush than their season average, and the Cardinals to 0.9 less than their season average. That’s almost an entire yard less. Which run defense will show up in Cincinnati? That’s the million dollar question. But even the good one will need to be at its best. Joe Mixon is currently second in the league in total yardage (286) and third in the league in average yards per game (95.3). As cliche as it sounds, hit him hard, hit him quick. One of the things that makes Mixon so good and lethal is his patience. Don’t give him an opportunity to find a lane and you can ruin his game.
4) Can Trevor Lawrence and DJ Chark get their connection on track?
John Shipley: I think you see the two finally connect for a deep shot this week, partially because the Jaguars have gone to Chark over and over again on big play chances in the last two weeks. Chark has been winning his reps and getting open, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't gotten the ball to him consistently. That will change eventually, and with Lawrence improving each week, I see it changing this week. The Jaguars will keep going at Chark over and over, and eventually those slight misses are going to turn into solid connections between him and his top receiver. After the two were so close last week, I think they can get over the hump this week.
Gus Logue: While the flashes are most certainly there, Trevor Lawrence has not been good in his NFL career thus far. He leads the league with seven interceptions, has thrown the lowest rate of catchable passes (per SIS), and ranks above only fellow rookies Justin Fields and Zach Wilson in completion percentage above expectation (per NGS). D.J. Chark has been hurt by Lawrence's inefficiency, as he ranks 41st among 46 qualifying players in rate of catchable targets and ranks 53rd in receiving yards despite having earned the fifth-most air yards in the league.
As I mentioned last week, I think there will be a game in the near future where everything clicks for Lawrence and he'll drastically cut down his mistakes while continuing to deliver high-end throws. But he'll need the ground game to be successful first so that everything isn't on his shoulders, and I'm pessimistic that that happens this week on the road in a short week against a stout Bengals defense which ranks top-five in yards per carry allowed and expected points added per rush.
Kassidy Hill: I feel a lot more confidence saying yes after the Cardinals game than I had to that point. Yes, the duo only connected on three of the six targets, but each one showed a better understanding of where the other wanted to go. Lawrence threw Chark open, lead him across the middle of the field and put one in the corner of the end zone where only Chark could make the grab. Marvin Jones is going to be Lawrence’s safety blanket, that’s become clear. But Chark and Lawrence are perfecting their timing and I think we see more and more opportunities for the duo to connect, starting against the Bengals.
5) Final predictions?
John Shipley: Jaguars 30, Bengals 20. For whatever reason, I feel like an improving Trevor Lawrence has a breakout game against a banged up Bengals' secondary and helps put the Jaguars' offense on the map for the first time this season. They haven't proven they can score points consistently, but I think they achomplish it tonight.
Gus Logue: Bengals 24, Jaguars 13. I think the Bengals hold the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that'll ultimately be the biggest factor in the game, as Cincinnati has manifested its desire to run and Jacksonville has been relatively uninterested in trying. The Jaguars have yet to prove it can score points with any consistency, and until they do I have a hard time expecting a favorable outcome.
Kassidy Hill: Maybe it’s the fact that it’s the Jags first primetime game and that they’ve steadily improved JUST enough the past three weeks and the fact that Jamal Agnew looks unstoppable and the fact that Thursday night games so far this season have been unobjectively insane, but I feel like just enough breaks will go the Jags way that they’ll get their first win of the season, 24-21. The new kicker, Matthew Wright, becomes a hero.
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October 01, 2021 at 02:15AM
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Jaguars vs. Bengals Roundtable: Can Jacksonville Win on Thursday Night Football? - Sports Illustrated
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