SAN ANTONIO -- Michigan has been a second-half team so far in this NCAA Tournament, but it might need a more complete effort to take down Villanova.
The Wolverines and Wildcats will tip at 7:29 p.m. ET (6:29 p.m. local) at AT&T Center for a spot in the Elite Eight. The winner will face either No. 1 seed Arizona or No. 5 seed Houston in Saturday’s South Region final.
Michigan, an 11 seed, finished strong in two games in Indianapolis last week. The Wolverines flipped a seven-point halftime deficit into a 75-63 win over No. 6 seed Colorado State a week ago. On Saturday, they trailed No. 3 seed Tennessee by five at half, by six with 7.5 minutes to go, and won 76-68.
Villanova’s path to San Antonio has been less nerve-wracking. Villanova, a No. 2 seed, beat No. 15 seed Delaware by 20 on Friday before taking down 7 seed Ohio State 71-61 on Sunday.
On Thursday, Michigan will try to reach its second straight regional final. To give any opposing coaching staff the edge over Juwan Howard and his staff would be a mistake. The same could be said of Jay Wright and the Villanova staff.
From Xs and Os to the Jimmys and Joes, here are some keys to Michigan pulling off another March Madness upset.
Houstan gets comfortable in Texas
Below are Michigan starter Caleb Houstan’s statistics at home compared to his numbers away from Crisler Center (the latter including road and neutral-site games):
Home: 15 games, 49 percent from the field, 48 percent from 3, 12.7 points per game
Away: 18 games; 31 percent from field, 34 percent from 3, 8.2 points per game
Thursday’s game will of course go in the latter category. Might the player whose name is pronounced (if not spelled) like a major Texas city find comfort in another?
It would help Michigan’s chances at the upset. There is a significant difference between Houstan’s output in wins and losses but, to be fair, that’s true for most every Wolverine. Michigan has survived little to no offensive production from the freshman wing.
Heck, Houstan went 0-for-4 and scored no points on Saturday against Tennessee. He was again scoreless, and shot 0-for-10, in a road win at Ohio State to close the regular season. So we’re not seeing the Duncan Robinson six points or more stat from 2017-18. But Houstan’s outside shooting in particular can help swing a game, as it did in the second half against Colorado State, when he made three 3s. Against an opponent as good as Villanova, if Houstan isn’t on fire, Michigan is playing with it.
Big game Hunter
This has been a key for both of Michigan’s NCAA Tournament wins so far and figures to hold true again: Hunter Dickinson needs to have a big game.
Eric Dixon is Villanova’s starting center and tallest player in the rotation. At 6-foot-8, he’s giving up five inches to Dickinson. If Wright opts to defend Dickinson one-on-one, there will be ample opportunities for baskets inside. Dickinson scored 27 points against Tennessee and 21 against Colorado State. He is a good passer out of double teams as well.
Howard said on Wednesday that Dixon’s size hasn’t prevented him from being an effective player on both ends of the floor. And both coaches made it clear that the game would not be decided by any one individual matchup.
“They went through a lot of struggles during the year,” Wright said, “but now they’ve got everybody back, everyone’s healthy, and they’re playing their best basketball. These are the teams that advance this time of year. So it’s way more than just Hunter Dickinson on this team that we have to deal with.”
Even so, the big men battle will go a long way in determining the outcome.
Defending the Wildcats’ attack
Villanova’s backcourt is tall, experienced, and productive. Collin Gillespie, the fifth-year point guard, was the Big East Player of the Year each of the past two seasons. “When they say you’ve been there forever, that means you’re doing something right,” Howard said of the 6-foot-3 Gillespie.
Junior Justin Moore is a 6-foot-4, as is fifth-year guard Caleb Daniels, who plays heavy minutes off the bench. All three of those Wildcats take and make a lot of 3s. Even Dixon hit a couple against Ohio State.
“They’ve got fours and fives that can shoot the ball,” Brooks said, “so we’re going to have to do a good job all around closing out under control because they all can put the ball on the ground as well.”
Michigan will have to do all of this without fouling too much, not just because of the team’s lack of depth but also since Villanova is on pace to be the best free throw shooting team in college basketball history at 82.6 percent. Gillespie has made 101 of his 112 foul shots (90 percent) this season.
“They do a really good job of playing one-on-one basketball when it comes to exploiting matchups,” Howard said. “They’re very patient within their offensive sets.”
One counter to expect on Thursday is a zone defense. Michigan has used it at times throughout the season, including in Indianapolis last week. It could deploy it even more against Villanova.
“We try to really be really energetic and really active in the zone, try to disrupt teams and try to force them into draining the shot clock so they don’t get the best of shots,” Dickinson said.
Against Villanova’s offense, ranked eighth in the country per kenpom.com, Michigan’s defense, no matter the strategy, better be well executed.
More Michigan-Villanova content:
Hunter Dickinson ‘heard those NIT chants,’ then powered Michigan into Sweet 16
Michigan is Big Ten’s banner program over last decade of NCAA Tournament
At end of long career, Eli Brooks steps up, keys Michigan’s NCAA Tournament run
In Sweet 16 matchup with Villanova, Michigan basketball will face experienced, proven team
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