Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month precipitated an energy crisis that is reverberating around the world. Nowhere are the effects felt more intensely than in the European Union, which relies on Russia for roughly 40 percent of its gas and more than a quarter of its oil.
Russian gas and oil exports
to the E.U. in 2021
Natural gas:
5.6 trillion cubic feet
Oil: 2.3 million
barrels per day
Cubic feet of natural gas have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent.
Russian gas and oil exports
to the E.U. in 2021
Natural gas:
5.6 trillion cubic feet
Oil: 2.3 million
barrels per day
Cubic feet of natural gas have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent.
Russian gas and oil exports to the E.U. in 2021
Oil: 2.3 million
barrels per day
Natural gas:
5.6 trillion cubic feet
Cubic feet of natural gas have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent.
As European leaders scramble to find alternatives to imported Russian energy, the question is whether this moment will mark a turning point in the fight against global warming — or just a change in fossil fuel vendors.
Earlier this month, E.U. officials announced a plan to curb Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of the year. The bloc aims to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before the close of the decade by ramping up renewable energy initiatives that were already underway.
This rapid transition faces many economic, social and logistical hurdles — but it is achievable, according to analyses from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel and the European Commission. Here’s how it might work.
Cuts of Russian gas proposed by this coming winter
By this winter, experts say, the E.U. can import more gas from alternative sources and invest in clean-energy infrastructure that can be quickly deployed. Through a combination of energy-efficiency measures and cutbacks in use, the bloc can also reduce its overall energy needs.
Cuts of Russian gas proposed by 2030
Here’s how the E.U. aims to transform its energy system — and sever its dependence on Russia — by the year 2030.
Strategies to cut dependence on Russian oil
Compared with the E.U.’s plans to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, its hope of eventually achieving independence from Russian oil is technically easier. That’s because a large share of Europe’s oil imports arrive by ship, whereas most of its gas from Russia comes through pipelines. Ships can be dispatched from around the world to replace Russian imports.
But there are major logistical and technical challenges looming that have made European leaders resist pressure to join the U.S. and Canadian bans on Russian oil, even as they’ve announced plans to phase out natural gas.
First, rerouting oil shipments around the continent can’t happen overnight. Second, European refineries are set up to refine Russian crude oil and might be less efficient at producing gasoline and other petroleum products with imports from other sources.
“At the moment, Europe’s supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said earlier this month, calling Russian supplies “essential” to Europe’s economy for now.
That leaves Europe and the rest of the world with one lever to pull to curb both rising oil prices and Russian imports: reducing demand.
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