WILL THE BRONCOS' DEFENSE CONTINUE TO STAND STRONG?
After being held to just 16 points in Week 1 against the Broncos' defense, the Titans have averaged an explosive 37 points per game in their four games since.
Denver held Pittsburgh to 26 points, and the Steelers have averaged nearly 35 points over the last three weeks.
Then, in New England, Denver limited an offense that was averaging nearly 30 points per game with Cam Newton to a paltry 12-point output. The Patriots mustered just three points through three quarters.
Denver will face another tough challenge against a Mahomes-led offense that ranks third in yards per game and ninth in points per game. And while they'll regain Dre'Mont Jones and A.J. Bouye — which we'll revisit in the next section — they'll have to cope with an offense that was borderline dominant last season in snowy conditions that may be similar to this weekend's environment.
Among the Broncos' choices will be whether to blitz Mahomes. Denver has posted 10 sacks over the last two weeks after recording just four in the season's first three games, but Mahomes is lethal when teams send extra rushers. Mahomes has posted a 142.2 passer rating against the blitz in 2020, compared to just a 101.6 passer rating when teams drop back in coverage. The Broncos would ideally be able to get pressure with just four rushers, which would allow them to drop seven players into coverage. In that scenario, they may be able to avoid giving up the big plays that fuel Kansas City's offense. With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and now Le'Veon Bell, the Chiefs have nearly unlimited weapons.
"They're really tough to stop," Fangio said. "They've got a lot of weapons. They can run it, they can throw it, they throw it deep, they run the reverses, they run the fly sweeps, they're a good screen team. You name it, they've got it. And [Chiefs head coach] Andy [Reid] does a good job of orchestrating it when he's calling the game."
If the Broncos can slow the Chiefs — as they slowed the Titans, Steelers and Patriots — that may be enough to keep Denver in the game in the fourth quarter. Then, they'll just need to close out a lead against one of the most dangerous players in football.
"That's what has been holding us back these past two years, is finishing out those close games on defense and having that identity that we're a team that will close out a game," Chubb said Wednesday. "This year, guys are starting to buy into that and starting to realize that if we want to be everything that we talk about,we have to go out there on Sunday and actually do it. In the Jets game and the Patriots game, it came down to us in the last minute and we stuck it out. We're slowly starting to build that identity on defense and we've just got to keep gaining the confidence and seeing it happen. I feel like it's going to take us through the roof for sure."
WHAT IMPACT WILL THE BRONCOS' RETURNING PLAYERS MAKE?
The Broncos have been shorthanded for much of 2020, but they'll regain some of their top playmakers on Sunday. How much of an impact those players have on the game could decide the outcome.
Noah Fant, who missed the team's Week 6 win over the Patriots, should help bolster the team's red-zone offense that was ineffective in New England. Wide receiver KJ Hamler, who also suffered his injury in Week 4, should be able to challenge Kansas City's secondary with his speed and help the Broncos' offense challenge the Chiefs with big plays. Running back Melvin Gordon III is poised to return from an illness, and his bruising running style could also help Denver in the red zone. WIth Gordon and Phillip Lindsay both on the field, the Broncos could create mismatch problems for Kansas City.
Then, on the defensive side of the ball, Jones and Bouye should return to action. The Broncos' secondary has held up well in Bouye's absence, but the former Jaguar entered the season as Denver's top cornerback. He's a ball-productive player — and he's picked off Mahomes in the past. Jones, meanwhile, could help Denver achieve a pass rush with just four players. That would allow the Broncos to put pressure on Mahomes without sacrificing coverage responsibilities. In short, it's the defensive plan the Raiders used to upset Kansas City earlier this year.
The Broncos used the 2020 offseason to stock up on speed and talent to try to challenge the Chiefs. Though Denver will still be without Von Miller, Courtland Sutton and Jurrell Casey, the Broncos are as close to full strength as they have been since the season began. If the returning stars can make an impact, Denver may be able to pull the upset.
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